Having spent the last few weeks in Ukraine, I was fortunate enough to be staying at the Intercontinental Kyiv, during the YES conference and was able to speak to people... Read more
Category: Current Affairs
Wagner marches on Moscow – what next?
In a dramatic 24 hours, Prigozhin has led Wagner to first of all take control of Rostov (the nerve centre of the Russian military command for Ukrainian operations), then taken... Read more
It’s Always Darkest Before the Dawn
So the Russians finally did what the Ukrainians had feared they would. They blew up the Kakhovka dam, which in one fell swoop has caused ecological devastation on a scale... Read more
How do Ukrainians in Ukraine feel about the war?
Having just returned from a week in Ukraine, the change in attitude from the people I saw, is noticeable since my last visit, last September. First, the fact that winter... Read more
Putin needs Chinese military support. Could he get it?
For Putin, the facts on the ground will make grim reading. Over 100,000 soldiers killed, possibly double that injured. New recruits are being incorporated into existing battalions just to cover... Read more
Could Belarus invade Ukraine this winter?
"There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where the events that happen change life for decades" The sudden death of Vladimir Makei, the Belarusian foreign secretary, indicates a power... Read more
Can the West stomach a long war?
Across Europe, the first real pain points of the Ukraine war are starting to be felt, as inflation rockets, in part caused by energy prices. Already in the USA, certain... Read more
What are the implications of the Russian mobilisation announcement?
With Russia driven out of the Kharkiv oblast, the defeat on the battlefield is so humiliating for Putin, that it is perhaps unsurprising that he has responded in the way... Read more
Why Kherson matters
As the Ukrainian army commences its counter-offensive in Kherson, this could be the battle that changes the course of the war. Why is Kherson so significant? Crimea has no source... Read more
What Borisβs departure means for the war in Ukraine
Across the European continent, champagne corks would have been fizzing at the announcement that Boris Johnson had been forced to resign. For the French and Germans, the idea of being... Read more
Post V-Day, what next?
As V Day takes place across Europe, the symbolism of this day is taking on a new meaning, for people across the continent. On the one hand, Putin looks to... Read more
Why Putin wants NATO to formally join the war
Finally, Putinβs master plan is indisputable, to unite all Russian-speaking people under one Greater Russia where he rules over all of them. Countries with large ethnic Russian diasporas are to... Read more
How long will this war last?
βViolence begets violence.β With each passing day, the military forces, resources, and equipment increase and with that, the violence intensifies. Mariupol is a humanitarian disaster, yet still, the shelling continues.... Read more
How could Ukraine win this war?
Despite Putinβs assertions to the contrary, increasingly what is becoming obvious is that the plan he had in mind for this campaign is not working. Even now, with the full... Read more
Why Putin won’t give up
Earlier I wrote about the Russian objectives from this war, with that, it is also worth thinking about an acceptable post-war paradigm that would be acceptable to Putin, assuming Russia... Read more
How you can support Ukraine’s Military
βThe only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.β As the war in Ukraine rages, both the people and governments of western countries... Read more
End game β how could the war in Ukraine be resolved?
In my last post, I wrote about the danger of assuming this war is on the verge of being won. With that, it is official. For now, at least, Kyiv... Read more
Arguably Russia is winning this war with Ukraine
This article was first published on February 26th 2022 As the battle rages on in Kyiv, across the West there is a real danger of false self-congratulation. In my first... Read more
Has Putin overplayed his hand?
This article was first published on February 24th 2022 Last month I wrote the following post on the basis of the information I had, having travelled to Ukraine. In that... Read more
Briefing: Why did Russia attack Ukraine really?
This article was first published on January 23rd 2022 For people who don't already know this due to both personal and professional reasons, my network in Ukraine is extensive, and... Read more