Across the European continent, champagne corks would have been fizzing at the announcement that Boris Johnson had been forced to resign. For the French and Germans, the idea of being able to reset relations with the UK was impossible for as long as he was in charge. Now he is leaving, they will be hoping to have a more collegiate leader to negotiate post-Brexit issues with. Similarly, the Russians would also have been delighted to see the back of Boris. After all, it was his force of personality and energy that led to the western alliance delivering Ukraine aid once the war started.

For that reason in Ukraine, his departure will cause much anxiety. Who will replace him and what will their stance be towards supporting Ukraine at this critical time where a lot will depend on who the new leader is. Indeed, arguably part of the reason Boris has stayed in place, for now, is to ensure that British support towards Ukraine remains in place during this critical period over summer. After all, when asked if there was an issue he would resign over, he answered, if he was unable to support Ukraine in the way he wanted. It is obvious he feels this war in a way other European leaders don’t. 

Nonetheless, arguably his biggest contribution has been made, the commitment by the west to support Ukraine has happened and thanks to that, they are able to stand toe to toe with Russia. His successor will be unlikely to make any dramatic changes in policy, in part because Ben Wallace has opted to remain as the Defence Secretary, where he has been an integral part of the process. Equally, if the war does drag on, that is where a new Prime Minister will start to determine British Policy. The US elections are coming ever closer and who knows what will happen the next time a budget bill to support Ukraine needs to be passed, similarly it is fair to say that France & Germany both secretly wish the war would end asap so they could start the process of normalizing relations with Russia.

With that in mind, here are some of the contenders and this is what I would expect their Ukraine stance to be:

• Rishi Sunak: He has been the finance minister in the UK for the past two years and is widely credited for the world-leading response to COVID when it comes to the economic bailout packages organized. While not all the policies worked perfectly, he is generally recognized as having made the best of a difficult situation. More recently though he has lost some of the shine, by looking to increase taxes at a time when people are facing a cost of living crisis. Indeed even within his own party, he is being called a socialist chancellor. His commitment to fiscal prudence is also the reason he resigned, arguing that the country couldn’t afford to cut taxes and implement the spending plans that Boris wanted, with Ukraine being mentioned as part of that. If he came to power, therefore, he would both recognize the need to increase spending in parts of the country that need investment and populated by swinging voters (red wall) while keeping the tax burden as low as possible. Looking at things from a Ukrainian slant, he is therefore probably the person I would least want to be the next Prime Minister.

• Sajid Javid: After Rishi, probably the one Ukrainians would want to see the back of would be Sajid Javid. In terms of what he has in common with Rishi Sunak, he also has a background in Investment Banking and was the Chancellor (finance minister) so really does understand the fiscal issues facing the UK. Especially around the cost of debt facing the country post-COVID as interest rates rise. On top of that most recently he was Health Minister, meaning he will be fully exposed to the challenges facing the NHS which in part is down to funding. Equally, while he ran for the Prime Minister job in 2019, he failed to make the final two, so I think it unlikely he wins this time. 

• Nadhim Zahawi: A self-made entrepreneur, who had earned for himself over $100m USD by the time he turned 50, and the current finance minister (as of the last week), his position on Ukraine is as of yet unclear. Broadly though his fiscal position is that tax cuts should take priority. What that means for defense spending is another story. He has suggested 20% cuts across all departments to fund the tax cuts though which suggests less funding by the UK for Ukraine with him in charge. He probably doesn’t have quite the track record in Government to win the big seat, also his treachery towards Boris won’t have gone unnoticed in that within 24 hours of being given the job of Chancellor he was telling the PM to resign.

• Priti Patel: While she hasn’t formally declared yet, as the current home secretary she holds one of the three key seats of the government behind the Prime Minister. Popular with the right-wing of the party, it was her proposal to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. She is a self-declared ‘Thatcherite’ which means a policy platform of low tax and spending.

• Liz Truss: The current Foreign Minister, she has been a hawk when facing the Russians and hyper-critical of their aggression. Therefore it is fair to say she would be looking to support Ukraine with their war. Equally, she does have a track record of U-turns. She was a documented proponent of the UK staying in the EU pre-2016, whereas since then she has sought to reposition herself as being pro-Brexit. Why does this matter? Well, she has shown she has no problem shedding an ideological policy if it no longer is the majority view. The danger for Ukrainians if she takes over, therefore, is that if all the Western allies start withdrawing support, I would argue she is unlikely to be prepared to stand alone supporting Ukraine. Equally, she has a real chance of making the top 2.

• Jeremy Hunt: The Former Foreign Minister and to his credit, also a successful entrepreneur who cashed out of the company he co-founded by 40, earning over $10m in the process. He has a mixed record in Government, when Health secretary he was highly unpopular, inversely as Foreign Secretary he was doing well and only lost the job because he lost the run-off leadership election against Boris. His public stance has been that he is supportive of Ukraine and would continue to be. Nonetheless, due to his generally moderate views on lots of policy areas, he is unlikely to be the next prime minister as party members are unlikely to select him.

• Penny Mordaunt: Out of all the cabinet ministers, arguably the least well-known of the people putting themselves forward. Her background as a Navy Reservist means she has close connections to the military, which means she is likely to be supportive of continued support to Ukraine. Similarly, her policy platform i.e. pro Brexit, low tax, and small state mean she will appeal to the party membership. Amongst the MPs, they will also have noticed her intellect and debating capability in the commons, a key part of the job. The question is can she make it to the final two MPs to be put forward? 

• Kemi Badenoch: While she lacks the experience of other candidates, interestingly she has secured already the backing of Michael Gove, who has been for a long time a key kingmaker within the party. While she has stated she wants to bring down taxes, what makes her stand apart from other candidates is her background both in terms of upbringing and in terms of ministerial office. Regarding Ukraine specifically, she has been a hawk in terms of policy statements. Indeed, for the Labour Party, were she to win, it would instantly neuter one of their primary attack channels, regarding the tory party being one led by the rich, for the benefit of the rich. In terms of policy platform also, she is arguably one of the most liberal in the party, meaning in principle she should be able to reach people outside the party’s core demographic. Whether that is enough for her to win the party nomination though is a question. 

• Tom Tugendhat: The ultimate dark horse. After a career in the military, he shone to fame 12 months ago, when he berated the government for their botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. He leads the foreign affairs select committee in parliament which means he would be fully briefed on all aspects of the war and is likely to be one of the most hawkish amongst potential candidates. Nonetheless, his lack of experience within government is likely to act as a drag as there will be real questions around competency.

As a final point, it is worth understanding the process for how the next leader will be selected. First of all, candidates put themselves forward where they need to get a certain number of MPs supporting their application. Assuming they hit the threshold, they are then voted on by the party MPs. The Party MPs then vote until only two candidates remain, where the party membership then selects between the final two. Understanding this is critical as anyone who does not have sufficient support from the party membership is unlikely to become Prime Minister. Party Members will be looking for a leader who can demonstrate competency, and equally look to implement policy in line with Conservative values. Party members are mostly white, 40+, living outside the main cities, and property owners, to give you a sense of the demographic. With that in mind, there are only really three people I can see reaching the final two. 

• Rishi Sunak
• Liz Truss
• Penny Mourdant

The others are either hoping they can persuade enough people along the way, but remain long-shots, or possibly are in it in part to get leverage for their next cabinet role. I.e. if they drop out and then swear fealty and that person wins, they will get a better job than if they never ran at all. Such is politics.

In the meantime, Ukraine waits to see from its ally who the next premier will be.

As V Day takes place across Europe, the symbolism of this day is taking on a new meaning, for people across the continent. On the one hand, Putin looks to position the special operation as being to defeat Ukrainian fascists, whilst in Ukraine, the parallels with history are clear, the war is existential, for the right to be an independent nation against a neighboring aggressor which seeks to occupy with force.

Nonetheless, increasingly rhetoric is taking second place to reality. On that basis, what we are seeing is:

• Russia won’t negotiate on its core objectives and is prepared to use brute force to win, even if that means heavy losses
• There is no clear negotiated middle ground that allows for a win-win, similarly, there are question marks on whether the Russians would even negotiate in good faith
• The Ukrainian people are prepared to fight to the death, won’t compromise on core principles, and can’t easily be beaten
• Russia is also now in an economic war with the west which has significant implications for not just them but the global economy
• It could be six months to a year before we see a meaningful conclusion

With that, as discussed in a previous post, the Russian core objectives are:

• Take control of Kherson, so to ensure water access for Crimea
• Secure the sea of Azov, by conquering all port cities (Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol) across the sealine
• Secure the entire black sea as well to restrict Ukrainian access to the water. Essential for supply lines and to starve exports (Mykolaiv, Odessa)
• Take control of Kharkiv and the surrounding cities (Sumy) as the regions with the highest ethnic Russian populations
• Secure the entire oblasts for Luhansk and Donetsk so they can be fully independent

On that basis, in terms of a status report, what we see is that 73 days in, Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdyansk have been conquered already, whereas Mariupol is mostly under Russian control. Mykolaiv has been targeted but the invading force has been repelled, for now, meaning Odessa is also safe, whereas the loss of the Moskva is a humiliation for the Russian navy. Finally, interestingly, the Ukrainian army is now launching a counteroffensive to push back from Kharkiv where the Russian army is on the back foot. So a mixed scorecard all things considered.

Putin’s gambit has been that he can just overpower the Ukrainians with brute force and wear them down over time, by sieging their cities using artillery and bombing until they implode from within. At that point the army marches in, plants a flag, and puts friendly administrators in power, kidnapping existing officials if necessary. This negates their weakness, the lack of training of their troops, and plays to their strengths, i.e. the size of their firepower. Mariupol is a testament to that. Once a city then surrenders, the army is moved on to the next target. 

However, this approach is coming at a heavy cost. Even if Putin is less concerned about the loss of life, the loss of weaponry is stark. So everyone has now seen the memes involving Russian tanks and Ukrainian tractors, jokes aside, it is now estimated that Ukraine has more tanks than it did at the beginning of the war. In contrast, out of a total of approx 12,000, it is estimated Russia has lost up to 1200. 

Regarding the Russian losses, while 10% of their tanks may not sound too much, then also consider that due to the sanctions that have been imposed, the Russians can not currently secure the parts needed to manufacture new tanks. The same applies to all Russian military hardware.  Even if Russia finds a way through its partnership with China to substitute some aspects of the technology it needs for manufacturing military hardware, over time it will lose. Put another way, at the current rate of losses, Russia would have lost 50% of its tanks in 12 months. This is a staggering amount, especially if combined with the fact that over time the Russians lose the ability to bomb from the skies, as the Ukrainians become more proficient in starstreak and other anti-aircraft systems. 

Also, sanctions are biting the Russian economy. Outside the obvious impacts seen, in terms of the military-industrial complex, it will take time for the real impact to be seen. Going back to what I touched on earlier regarding manufacturing, there is a critical issue in Russia in terms of dependency on western technology. Similarly, there are real problems regarding the STEM-based economy, in terms of the ability of the next generation to build out the solutions needed. In the Soviet Union, Engineers were at the forefront, today they are underpaid, undervalued, and if highly skilled have probably already moved abroad. What this means is that, despite assertions to the contrary, Russia can not afford to have continued sanctions and function normally. It doesn’t have the IP or expertise to have an autonomous industry. For now, Putin can gloss over this, but the longer the war runs, the more evident this truth will become.

As a result, what is clear is that Putin will be unable to achieve what he craved, which is an overwhelming victory. Instead, at best, he probably needs to lock in gains made as fast as possible and make them the basis of a negotiated settlement. However, in order to ensure gains made aren’t lost in the here and now, they need reinforcements. Hence Russian troops in Syria are now being redeployed and there are now talks of full mobilization. 

With this in mind, the Ukrainians understand the only way to win is to stay in the battle with everything that entails and do whatever they can to prevent the Russians from locking in land gains. Therefore they stand resolute and are clear that they won’t accept any negotiated settlement that is a diktat. Zelenskyy has even said any settlement would be subject to a referendum. 

Similarly, in the here and now there are questions as to whether the Russians even negotiate in good faith, as seen by the shelling of humanitarian corridors despite assurances to the contrary, or the poisoning of the Ukrainian negotiating team. Therefore the only thing that matters for the Ukrainians is to continue to have the support of the west, hence the continued diplomatic efforts made to secure additional weaponry, along with extending sanctions on Russia.

Therefore as long as the Ukrainians continue to get western support, and as long as the west maintains sanctions, there will come a point where the Russians are forced back. In both cases, the horrors of the war crimes committed mean this is a safe bet and for the Ukrainians, given the sacrifices made, there is no reason to stop now. WWII teaches us that in a longer war, the winner is the nation that is able to outperform the other in manufacturing, for everything from tanks to missiles, bullets, and even spare parts. With the west now acting to resupply Ukraine, it is hard to see how Russia can compete and unless they can finish this war quickly, it is harder to see how they win. 

In summary, as the war moves into this final phase of attrition, expect long-range artillery supplied by the west under Ukrainian control to fire into Russia, destroying depots and re-supply points along with railways, hence providing logistical support to front line troops will become increasingly hard. Similarly, while Putin may not concern himself with the body count, the generals themselves will feel pressure as the death count mounts. Already it is estimated there are 25,000 dead and up to 50,000 injured and unable to fight. Therefore it is my belief Russia probably run out of steam in the next six months at which point, regardless of the political will, their military will just stop being able to compete. For the Russian leadership, in that instance, it would be much easier to say they are at war with NATO and look to have a creditable draw (after all no Russian territory would have been lost), than admit they have been unable to conquer Ukraine. From a propaganda perspective, therefore, regardless of anything else, I expect in this next phase, the language used by the Kremlin to emphasize western assistance and the fact that with that, Russia is in effect at war with NATO. This then means that should there need to be a need to withdraw, they can do so on this pretext. Hence this is why Liz Truss is stating the war should not end until Ukraine has won back Lukansk, Donestsk and Crimea. So there is no doubt Russia had a humiliating defeat, which creates a groundswell movement against the leadership. Otherwise, at that point even if Putin is deposed, the danger for the west is that his replacement is someone more hardline than him. For example, Nikolai Patrushev is alleged to be taking over whilst Putin undergoes surgery, where he is a hardliner, who shares Putin’s paranoia about the west. What happens then? Russia retreats, rearms, and re-invades later? The risk of inaction now is greater than the risk of escalation. Russia must not only lose but be seen to lose within the country, where the hardliners are discredited and a new Government is formed which looks to make reparations for these actions. Only then can Europe have peace again. 

If you found this article interesting, please do consider making a donation to support the Ukrainian military. It all makes a difference.

Please click the URL here:
https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi?fbclid=IwAR2ErX3bqF_8ZNWISjNaTZAx0dVmt0O5SbSBtRcZAyIiN7pmeALAt7Z6xLk

Finally, Putin’s master plan is indisputable, to unite all Russian-speaking people under one Greater Russia where he rules over all of them. Countries with large ethnic Russian diasporas are to be either absorbed in through union (such as Belarus) or targeted for conquest (e.g. Ukraine). Any dissent is cracked down on. Any protest results in an arrest. There is only one acceptable interpretation of Russian culture, What Putin determines is so. With that, the transformation is complete. Russia is now a Nazi state to be shaped in accordance with Putin’s will.

However, for as long as the war is only with Ukraine, dissent will remain. The common ties between the Ukrainian and Russian people run deep and the lines of communications between the peoples of the two countries remain in place. Putin talks about denazification and the emancipation of oppressed ethnic Russian people in Ukraine, where in fact arriving soldiers are treated as an invading force. Captured prisoners of war ring home and cast a ray of truth into what’s happening and their numbers increase by the day. 

Therefore across the country, Putin’s propaganda steps into gear so the Russian people support his war. Meanwhile, the Russian war machine has adapted to the facts on the ground and changed accordingly where the game plan is now clear. Flatten cities until the inhabitants are deprived of everything where their only option is surrender. Kharkiv and Mariupol for now, when they fall, Kyiv, Odessa, and Dnipro next. In a sign of the militarization now happening, increasing numbers of Russians now favor a war with the EU, with Poland being the top target.

With this in mind, while a settlement remains a possibility, for Putin to accept a treaty that doesn’t give him what he wants would be too humiliating to be allowed. Similarly, for as long as the Russians place demands that Ukraine can’t accept, the chance of war ending through a treaty is unlikely. The western pivot to support Ukraine militarily means they can continue to fight, indefinitely. The decision has already been made across the West, that the cost of sanctioning Russia and supporting Ukraine is worth absorbing.

Hence Putin and Lavrov now in their rhetoric talk not about the war against Ukraine, but the war against the West. They understand that the sanctions placed on the country have to be responded to with a counter-narrative. Hence now they talk about Russia fighting for its right to exist as a sovereign nation against the west, where all they want to do is protect the ethnic Russian diaspora from oppression. The fact that the sanctions are not going to be lifted any time soon means that for them, the only way forward is to escalate.

Therefore the next military actions they take will be designed to be provocative. Putin has stated that military convoys for Ukraine are legitimate targets, where Poland is the number one route for them. Assuming the military support continues, expect a long-range missile strike to hit a convoy on NATO soil, or some equivalent action designed to provoke the west. Either way, it’s a win-win. If NATO doesn’t react, he can point to them and show Ukraine the pointlessness of seeking to be part of an alliance that doesn’t react which helps him negotiate a settlement with them. Or they do respond and he gets the war against the west he craves.

This next phase of the war promises to be the most dangerous of all.

If you found this article interesting, please do consider making a donation to support the Ukrainian military. It all makes a difference.

Please click the URL here:
https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi?fbclid=IwAR2ErX3bqF_8ZNWISjNaTZAx0dVmt0O5SbSBtRcZAyIiN7pmeALAt7Z6xLk

“Violence begets violence.”

With each passing day, the military forces, resources, and equipment increase and with that, the violence intensifies. Mariupol is a humanitarian disaster, yet still, the shelling continues. Across the country, resistance is met with a brutal response, where now Russian soldiers are told to shoot civilians if they resist. Syrian troops are now being drafted in, while there is also chatter of another front being opened up by Belarus targeting the Nuclear plant in Rivne. Meanwhile, the west continues to send through military convoys supporting Ukraine and the foreign legion grows by the day. The escalation is such that at the moment, everyone has invested too much for there to be a negotiated settlement where everyone can save face. Such is the escalation now, that there needs to be both a clear victor and loser.

In the middle of all of this is Putin, who is now facing a war on four fronts:

• Economic War vs the West
• Military War vs Ukraine with Western support
• Oligarchs and state apparatus
• General populace

Given that Putin shows no willingness to compromise and states only that war will end when Ukraine accepts his terms, assuming that this doesn’t happen, the danger Putin faces is he can’t afford to lose any of those fronts, or it could be game over for him.

Economic War vs the West

Russian oil and gas exports this past month reached levels not seen in over 15 years. Factor that due to that fact, Russia operated a 20 BN USD current account surplus in February. 

Therefore while the west talks about sanctions, until oil and gas stop being bought by the EU, Russia has free licence to continue to wage war. Putin will care not about companies pulling out of Russia, already there are plans afoot to nationalise the assets of businesses leaving. Similarly, the fact that the Moscow stock exchange remains closed will not concern him. His priority will be closing the technological gap with the west, hence operating behind sanctions in some ways for him is better, as it will force Russian scientists and businesses to find a way to build their own microchips, cell phones, etc. Definitely, it won’t be easy, but being behind sanctions means there is no choice. Therefore, unless the EU stops all Oil & Gas imports, I don’t expect any real issue here for Putin. Fortunately for Putin, there has been no concrete statement made by Germany to implement a sharp shock and a gradual drawdown won’t achieve the required result as Putin can just adapt by absorbing the additional transit costs and selling more to India and China. It needs to be shock and awe or not at all. 

Military War vs Ukraine with Western support

Insofar that the Russians are slowly achieving their pre-war objectives, it is taking longer than Putin anticipated and the challenge now is maintaining supply lines. Hence there are stories emerging of humanitarian convoys designated for Mariupol being intercepted by Russian forces and used for their army. Also, there has been widespread reporting of looting. 

While the Russian army is slowly closing in on Kyiv, it is worth remembering the lessons from the past. When the Russian army closed in on Berlin and defeated the Germans, they did so with an army of 2.5m, who were also battle hardened after five years of conflict. Currently they have an army of c100k around Kyiv of mostly conscripts. Therefore at this point, it is worth positing that once the initial assault failed, the objective changed, so with that the primary purpose of the siege of Kyiv is no longer to capture it, but to force the Ukrainians to pull back all available resources in defence of their capital. 

Meanwhile Russian forces have free rein to consolidate and fortify positions in Crimea, Kherson (now with a planned proxy referendum coming), across the Sea of Azov along with the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. While that’s happening, Putin won’t bother with a full-on assault. He doesn’t need to. He can just bombard the city from the limits, demoralize the people by keeping them penned in and limit the ability of the army to resupply across the country or to do counter-offensives. If Kyiv is the last to fall, so be it. Putin is calculating that the longer the siege goes on, the more demoralized people will be and eventually Zelenskyy will have no choice but to surrender.

Equally, he understands the significance of the western supply of arms and equipment. He knows that the Russian air force has taken significant losses. Another interesting statistic is the Russians have lost more tanks in this conflict than the Germans have in their entire army. Now the British are talking about introducing Starstreak S2A missiles, which will mean that no aircraft is safe, even if at cruising altitude. Hence the bombing of the Lviv military training center and the warning that continued convoys will be considered targets.

While there are rumors of soldiers deserting and not being prepared to fight, as this conflict drags on, history tells us mindsets will harden, so any hope from the west that the Russian army will collapse from within is fanciful. If anything Putin will do what he is doing, augment existing battalions with foreign armies and mercenaries, while massively expanding the scope of the military police to deal with potential mutiny. Their brief would then be to tell all soldiers that doing anything else than what they are told by commanders is treason.

As a result, what’s clear from this is that, unless the West does more militarily, over time Russia will probably win (unless Putin loses one of his other three fronts). Realistically for NATO to directly engage would be very dangerous. Possibly the only way there could be a military escalation that doesn’t lead to nuclear war is for the British, French, and Americans to intervene under the 1984 Budapest accords, where they send in a combined peacekeeping force on humanitarian grounds, to destroy all Russian artillery which is leading to the mass refugee crisis in Europe. Do I expect this to happen? No. But would Putin launch a nuclear strike on any of those three, knowing all three are nuclear powers? No. 

For the Governments of the UK, USA, and France there is a risk assessment needed to be done. To do nothing means the Russians probably win, albeit at a heavy cost where after the war they are sanctioned to the west. Or step up and engage, and save Ukraine where in the aftermath, British, American & French companies can play a central part in rebuilding the Ukrainian economy and unleashing a boom for the country. The issue of course is that none of the countries involved have a border with Ukraine and the Turkish have already sealed the Bosphorus strait, which means there is a significant logistical challenge to avoid NATO being pulled in. Possibly the only way this could be done is for the US nuclear weapons in Turkey to be put under Turkish control, so the Russians understand that firing on them is not an option. At that point, a full-on naval assault could begin, targeting Crimea in the first instance and then pushing the Russians back from there.

Oligarchs and State Apparatus

Over the last decade, Putin has been careful to surround himself with a combination of loyalists and people who share his worldview regarding the west. Oligarchs have been tolerated as they don’t interfere in the political sphere. The challenge of this approach is that it has led to a culture of deceit. Putin has now placed two of the most senior officials in the FSB under house arrest for failing to brief him accurately regarding the intelligence provided on what the Ukrainian resistance would be. Expect further purges. 

Amongst the Oligarchs, Oleg Deripaska has called for an end to the war in Ukraine, joining a handful of others who have dared to speak out against the invasion. However, none of them are openly challenging Putin, only stating that the war is a disaster for the economy. In truth, in Russia, Putin stands unopposed, and there is no one capable of uniting the various factions in Russia to stand against him. Things will need to get a lot worse before Putin is under any serious pressure and as long as Putin is able to show a meaningful victory at the point the war ends, the opposition will dissipate. 

The main internal chatter is now is that the reason the way has not been won already is due to incompetence, hence 9 generals being fired this week. In the west, we would love to believe there is a group behind the scenes plotting to remove Putin, but in reality, the key generals remain loyal and as history tells us, as long as the Army supports the leader, their rule is secure. 

General Populace

Russia is a country that has had a successful revolution and Putin as a student of history will be very familiar with the various elements that led to that. Hence he has been systematically quashing any resistance, no matter how minor, to the point where people walking down the street are being challenged to produce their phones, to prove they are pro-Russia and don’t have any anti-war messages written to friends. 

People protesting are arrested and there is an accelerated escalation to criminalisation to cow people into submission. Anyone who continually stands up and against the war risks 10+ years in jail. This approach, combined with making sure there is no leader who can be a lightning rod is proving highly effective. In a country of 150m approx, only 20k have been arrested for protesting the war. For context, when Blair took the UK into Iraq, we saw marches on the streets of 1m people. Therefore assume that there will be no revolution or popular uprising. People who don’t want to remain in Russia will find ways to leave.

In the meantime expect the size of the Russian secret police to grow ever larger as a way to maintain control over the people.

In Summary

Due to the reasons given above, I am not expecting this war to be curtailed due to internal Russian factors. Putin has stated he will continue until his objectives are achieved, which could take years. From his perspective, he has shown he doesn’t care about the humanitarian impact of flattening a city. Nor does he worry about cultural destruction.  Therefore the only way to prevent the complete flattening of Ukraine is for the west to escalate militarily and for the EU to stop oil and gas exports. Or stand back, watch Ukraine be flattened, Putin take all the spoils, and deal with the humanitarian crisis that will accompany 20m refugees… 

If you found this article interesting, please do consider making a donation to support the Ukrainian military. It all makes a difference.

Please click the URL here:
https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi?fbclid=IwAR2ErX3bqF_8ZNWISjNaTZAx0dVmt0O5SbSBtRcZAyIiN7pmeALAt7Z6xLk

Earlier I wrote about the Russian objectives from this war, with that, it is also worth thinking about an acceptable post-war paradigm that would be acceptable to Putin, assuming Russia becomes a pariah state in the west, so to help us understand why he’s not going to stop or meaningfully negotiate.

Therefore six days in, let’s clarify first on what looks like to be the Russian military objectives:

• As discussed before, connect Crimea to the canal network / fresh water in Kherson. With that take ownership of the Kherson oblast (source of freshwater for Crimea.)
• Take control of the cities across the Azov sea coastline (from Melitopol to Mariupol etc) and with that take 100% ownership of that sea.
• Take control of the Lugansk & Donetsk Oblasts, including the key cities within. (these are the regions which the Russian duma recognized as being independent.) Also take Kharkiv, which borders Russia.
• Conquer Kyiv and force the surrender of the Ukrainian Gov’t, to be replaced by a pro-Russian administration.
• Seal the border, ensuring that all resource-rich regions fall under Russian control.

With that we can see that of those, the first has been achieved, the second is in progress and is likely to be accomplished shortly, while with the remaining items, it is too early to say.

How long will it take to complete the remainder?

• Well, if the first objective took four days to achieve (it was on the weekend the dam that was blocking water to Crimea was destroyed) and we are arguably one day away from Mariupol falling, that suggests that the next priority will be securing the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

• To that effect what we are seeing is that Kharkiv specifically is being targeted with punishment bombing. While this is happening Russian columns are pushing in to seek to take the city. While up to now they have been repelled, Ukrainian troops are likely to run out of ammo shortly. The Ukrainians seem to be struggling with resupplying the troops in the East, where unless they find a way to do so, those Battalions will have no choice but to retreat west. At that point, we should expect the advancing Russian columns to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. As mentioned previously, assuming resupply fails, the Russians should achieve this by the weekend.

• This then takes us to Kyiv. For the Russians, the capital poses a unique challenge in that the city metro system has been designed to be reinforced against bombing, with nuclear bunkers built in even. (Done after WWII this is a legacy of the cold war era.) What this means is that the people can safely (compared to any other city in Ukraine) stay within the capital indefinitely as long as supply lines are maintained. How long will it take for Russia to break the siege and take the city? That is the big question and largely depends on how effective the Ukrainians are in getting supply lines in. With that, the Russians will be doing everything they can to siege the city to prevent any new munitions or weapons from entering. 

• This is probably the most dangerous point in the war, as this is the point that if Putin decides he wants to use nuclear weapons to break resistance, he will. I don’t think he would nuke Kyiv, but he may fire on Lviv, the central command structure of the west, and the coordination point for all resupply lines. He may rationalize that in the way the Americans nuked Japan in 1945 to enforce surrender, this is the only way the Ukrainian nation lays down its arms. This is also the point where the pressure building upon him within Russia will be escalating, to the point he will also know he needs the war to be over quickly, so he can concentrate on silencing internal dissent. I currently expect to be in this phase from this weekend, as people really start to give voice as the working week ends. Equally, I don’t think Putin can now back down without winning Kyiv. He is too pot committed.

• Assuming he can take Kyiv and impose a friendly regime, he will quickly look to secure the border in a way to maximize ownership of the natural resources, which is a real prize. Running through the resources in play:

• • Ukraine has the second-biggest known gas reserves in Europe, largely unexploited (est around 1.09 trillion cubic meters, for context Norway has 1.53 trillion.)
  • It is also estimated to hold over 135 million tons of oil and 3.7 billion tons of shale oil reserves.
  • Ukraine alone has an estimated 27 billion tons of iron ore reserves and was the fifth largest exporter of iron ore in the world in 2019 ($3.36 billion)
  • Ukraine is in the top ten producers of manganese ore in the world and has the largest manganese ore reserve in Europe. Manganese is essential and irreplaceable in steelmaking, and its global mining industry is dominated by just a few nations. It is therefore considered to be a critical mineral commodity.
  • Ukraine’s breakaway territories in the Donbas region have abundant lithium resources (The primary use of lithium is in rechargeable batteries for mobile phones, laptops, electric vehicles, etc) however there is no active mining currently.
  • Ukraine accounts for 1.8% of the world’s uranium deposits and has the largest in Europe.
  • Ukraine has up to 20 percent of the proven world reserves of titanium ores are situated in Ukraine. It is also one of the few nations with 360 production in the titanium industry- from the mining to producing of the finished products. For context, titanium is a critical component in the manufacture of airplanes.
  • Ukraine is normally the third largest wheat exporter and fourth for corn. It is commonly referred to as the breadbasket of Europe.
  • Ukraine has 300 deposits of graphite, containing more than 1 billion tons or 20% of the world’s graphite. Its high conductivity makes it useful in electronic products such as electrodes, batteries, and solar panels.
  • Ukraine has the fifth largest resource of Mercury (30,000 tons.)
  • In fact, Ukraine’s subsurface resources include a concentration of up to a hundred different types of minerals, the market value of which is estimated to be $7.5 trillion USD. With that, the mineral resource base is formed of 20,000 deposits and ore manifestations, of which 7,800 are explored, and only 3,300 are being developed.

What this all means is, assuming Putin can successfully conquer Ukraine and subjugate the country into a new Greater Russian Empire, the aggregated resources Putin then has means he can bring down his Iron Curtain and reinvigorate his economy, through fully exploiting the resources from Ukraine and integrating them into the Russian industrial complex, creating a new economic boom in the process. Any short-term dissent can be overcome when there is a clear pathway for prosperity, especially for those on the right side of the Kremlin. Even without the west, such is Putin’s stranglehold on resources, that he can afford to operate as a pariah state, as long as he can continue to trade with India and China. The focus then becomes the new space race.

With all this in mind, given what Putin has to gain by completing this conquest, why would he quit right now, when he is so close to completing his objectives? In my next post, I will be writing about what might stop him.

If you found this article interesting, please do consider making a donation to support the Ukrainian military. It all makes a difference.

Please click the URL here:
https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi?fbclid=IwAR2ErX3bqF_8ZNWISjNaTZAx0dVmt0O5SbSBtRcZAyIiN7pmeALAt7Z6xLk